Releasing this week is the third film in the Avatar franchise, titled Avatar: Fire and Ash. Avatar is one of the biggest movie franchises in Hollywood history. The first Avatar remains the highest-grossing film of all time globally, while the second instalment, Avatar: The Way of Water, went on to gross over USD 2 billion worldwide. In India as well, both films emerged as the highest-grossing foreign films at the time of their release, with The Way of Water still holding the all-time record.
Naturally, given this extraordinary track record, expectations from Fire and Ash are high. The film is carrying strong pre-sales, not just for its opening day but right through the opening weekend. Pre-sales are expected to close at around Rs. 25 crore gross for the weekend, with over Rs. 10 crore coming from the opening day alone. Strong as these numbers are, they fall well short of Avatar: The Way of Water, which had clocked pre-sales of over Rs. 25 crore for the opening day and around Rs. 55 crore for the opening weekend.
This aligns with the sales trend in other markets across the world, where advances are down from Avatar 2. The probable reason for this shortfall is the fact that Avatar 2 was a long-awaited sequel to a box office zeitgeist and the biggest movie in the world, which was finally released after thirteen years. On the other hand, Avatar 3 is just another Avatar film in three years. The pent-up demand for an Avatar film that propelled early demand for Avatar 2 isn’t at play this time. Additionally, there is also the competition from the ongoing box office juggernaut, Dhurandhar.
Based on pre-sales, Fire and Ash is expected to collect around Rs. 25 crore (Rs. 20 crore nett) on its opening day in India. The film should see growth over the weekend, for a probable Rs. 85-90 crore (Rs. 70-75 crore nett) in three days. In comparison, Avatar 2 had grossed Rs. 155 crore (Rs. 127 crore nett) in three days.
Even if the initial demand doesn’t match Avatar 2, that doesn’t mean Avatar 3 can’t be a big grosser. After all, the director of the film, James Cameron, who has delivered some of the biggest blockbusters of world cinema, has famously said not to judge his films until the third weekend. With a long holiday period at its disposal, Fire and Ash has ample opportunity to build strong legs and sustain its run over time.
