Border 2 is looking to collect Rs. 27-28 crore nett approx on its first day at the Indian box office. That number may go a bit higher depending on how some of the actuals land in the morning. The film could outperform in some of the smaller centres, although they shouldn’t make that big of a difference. The momentum in advances yesterday indicated a Rs. 30-35 crore as a possibility, although that momentum might have been miraged by some adds as the advance at national chains moved a lot stronger than the rest, which is not how it usually goes.
The film performed best in Delhi-UP, East Punjab, Rajasthan, and Bihar, circuits that have traditionally been strongholds for the Deols. Business here has come in at Rs. 40–45 crore nett day ratio level. West Bengal also outperformed, thanks to holiday help. Mumbai and Southern circuits were on the lower side, which is again the case usually with Deol films. Having said that, Gujarat generally does well for them and did really strongly for Gadar 2, but was relatively ordinary here. Still, these circuits could come on board over the weekend, with initial reports seemingly being on the positive side.
East Punjab, notably, had underperformed for Gadar 2 due to weak results from the Punjab state. Sunny Deol, who was a box office GOD in the state, saw some erosion in his appeal following his political stint. Today, Punjab state has done well, thanks in part to a local holiday and possibly the presence of Punjabi superstar Diljit, adding some value. The overall circuit will clear the Rs. 3 crore nett mark, likely around Rs. 3.50-3.75 crore nett as compared to Rs. 4.21 crore nett of Gadar 2.
While the expectations from the film were higher, this is still a good position to be in. It is important to contextualise where those expectations were coming from. Sunny Deol, as a box-office entity, had largely been phased out over the past two decades. The blockbuster success of Gadar 2 was a pleasant yet shocking surprise for everyone, including Sunny Deol himself. Had Gadar 2 not existed, these opening numbers for Border 2 would have been viewed with a similar pleasant surprise. But now that we have the precedent of Gadar 2, they kinda feels low. Ironically, Gadar 2 was underestimated before release, but its success has led to Border 2 being slightly overestimated.
Looking ahead, the film should see a big growth over the weekend, and then there will be a massive national holiday for Republic Day on Monday. Given the patriotic themes of Border 2, they shall fit strongly with the day, and it should be a huge day. The four-day extended weekend should cross Rs. 125 crore nett. It could get closer to Rs. 150 crore nett as well, especially if the Mumbai circuit comes on board over the weekend. That will set the film on its way to be a HIT and more if it is more like the latter case.