Every NHL season there are breakouts, bounce-backs and step-backs. For this story, we will focus on the last group. Which players are primed for letdowns after impressive 2024-25 seasons? Here are five who fit the bill.
Matt Duchene, Dallas Stars forward
Perhaps we saw a preview of Duchene’s potential regression during the Stars’ playoff run this past spring, when he scored once in 18 games after hitting the 30-goal mark in the regular season. He likely will not fall off that much this season, though it is worth noting that his 19.7 shooting percentage was the highest of his career. (When factoring for shot quality, Duchene should have scored around 22 goals.)
Duchene also lost his running buddy of two years, Mason Marchment, in a trade with the Seattle Kraken, as well as linemate Mikael Granlund, who departed for Anaheim in free agency. Dallas scored 14 goals at 5-on-5 with that line on the ice, half of which came off Duchene’s stick.
And now Jamie Benn, who figured to play on Duchene’s line, is out after suffering a collapsed lung. It will be a tall task for Duchene, 34, to put up 80-plus points for the second consecutive year.
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Morgan Geekie, Boston Bruins forward
After nearly doubling his career high in goals from 17 to 33, Geekie earned a six-year, $33 million contract in the off-season. It was a major glow-up for the 27-year-old Geekie, who went from a healthy scratch at the start of last season to a fixture on Boston’s top line opposite David Pastrnak.
Geekie closed out the season strong, recording 14 goals and 25 points over his final 20 games while shooting 37.8 per cent in all situations and riding a 21.9 on-ice shooting percentage at 5-on-5. He, Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm outscored opponents 17-2 at 5-on-5 during that span.
Maybe Pastrnak was the key to unlocking Geekie’s potential, but few players can sustain that kind of performance over a full season.
Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings goaltender
Kuemper returned to Los Angeles last season and put together the best performance of his 13-year career. The 2022 Stanley Cup champion recorded a 2.02 goals-against average in 50 starts and was a Vezina Trophy finalist for the first time at age 34. (Prior to last season, Kuemper had a career 2.61 GAA.)
Now 35, Kuemper saved more goals than expected in 36 of his 50 starts (72 per cent), which trailed only Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz (75.8 quality-start percentage). Overall, Kuemper’s 29.8 GSAE ranked fourth league-wide, and his 9.2 GSAE on the penalty kill was second.
The Kings are perennially one of the league’s top defensive teams, finishing first or second in expected goals against in each of the past four seasons. Kuemper thrived in Los Angeles’ goalie-friendly environment, but even so, it would be asking a lot of him to play at that level again.
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Aliaksei Protas, Washington Capitals forward
Multiple Capitals players are bound to regress after everything went right offensively last season. Washington, which won the Eastern Conference with 111 points, shot 12.6 per cent in all situations — the highest mark by any team this millennium.
Protas, who entered last season with 13 goals and 53 points in 169 career games, exploded for 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games. He scored 10.2 goals above expected, sixth most in the league behind Buffalo’s Tage Thompson, Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, teammate Alex Ovechkin, Toronto’s William Nylander and Montreal’s Patrik Laine.
Unlike Protas, the players who finished in front of him are proven scorers who have the shooting talent to maintain that production. Protas ended the season tied for 37th in slot goals (25) and 174th in slot shot attempts (132) — a conversion rate of 18.9 per cent that will be difficult for the 24-year-old winger to replicate.
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Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers forward
This time last year, Reinhart was all over these lists after scoring a career-high 57 goals in 2023-24. He managed “just” 39 goals in the regular season but scored 11 in the playoffs, including seven in the Stanley Cup Final.
Reinhart has averaged 40.9 goals per 82 games over four seasons in Florida, but he lost linemate Aleksander Barkov last week to a potentially season-ending knee injury. Over the past two seasons, Reinhart and Barkov have shared nearly 1,800 minutes of ice time at even strength. The Panthers have outscored opponents 85-45 at 5-on-5 within those minutes. (Barkov has assisted on 56 of Reinhart’s 96 goals since 2023-24, including 34 primary assists.)
With Barkov on the shelf, Reinhart, 29, is expected to start the season on a line with Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett. They played together for 20:28 last season and generated 31.7 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5. It would not be a total shock if Reinhart struggles some without one of the best centres in the game feeding him the puck.
All stats via Sportlogiq
